Iran is worried about Trump hitting the end of his term
Many factors could cause President Trump to initiate conflict with Tehran before leaving the White House, according to some Iranian officials and experts.
Last week, when a series of rockets were fired against the Green Zone, home to the US embassy in the Iraqi capital, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) Quds task force immediately dispatched General Ismail Qaani.
"General Qaani made clear to pro-Iran militia commanders in Iraq that US President Donald Trump wants to drag the region into an endless war before the end of his term to 'take revenge' on Joe Biden, and they cannot.
Iraqi militia commanders who attended the meeting with General Qaani said they had been ordered to stop raiding US troops, infrastructure and interests in the region, in order to avoid increasing tensions with the Trump administration.
This fear of Iran is even more valid, when NYTimes last week said Trump had asked his subordinates to raise plans to attack Iran's Natanz nuclear facility during a meeting in the Oval Office on November 12 with
The attack on Iran's main nuclear facility in Natanz could spark conflict in the region and pose a serious foreign policy challenge to President-elect Joe Biden when he takes office.
"I think it's still possible and has a lot of worrisome signs," said Ryan Costello, policy director at the National Council of Iran Americans (NIAC).
However, he said that the attack on the Natanz factory would be a "too big adventure" both politically and logically in the context of President Trump running out of time at the White House.
"That does not take into account Iran's response when it has a large missile arsenal capable of striking Saudi territory and US bases in the region. Attacking Iran will be extremely risky."
Information about the possibility of attacking Iran also goes against Trump's attempt to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan, as well as reduce Washington's military presence in the region.
Imad Harb, research director at the Arab Center in Washington, said many factors that could prompt Trump to order an attack on Iran in the coming weeks, such as leaving behind the legacy of a US president punishing Tehran,
"It might happen, maybe not, they don't necessarily have to do with President Trump himself," Harb said, adding that politicians, defense officials and the American public are all wary of the danger.
However, Trump's sudden dismissal of defense secretary Mark Esper and the replacement of top Pentagon officials has many worried that he is planning to act in a non-traditional way, including the possibility of
Presidents leaving the White House often avoid sparking military conflicts that could extend into the terms of their successors, but Trump has always been the one to go against common sense.
Trump remains in full control of the US President, including commander in chief of the US armed forces, until January 20, 2021.
Defense leaders and national security officials, who are often consulted ahead of critical decisions, are more likely to prevent the White House boss from taking reckless military action.
In addition to domestic issues, the leaving president also needs to assess the response from Washington's allies if the US attacks Iran.
"The Gulf countries are enamored with what Donald Trump can offer them, including the deal to normalize relations with Israel. But whether they really look forward to military action, at first.
In addition to military action, Trump could also prevent the United States from returning to the Comprehensive Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran's nuclear deal with major powers, by adding a new set of embargo against fish.
Under JCPOA terms, Iran will reduce the size of its nuclear program in exchange for partially lifting the embargo aimed at the economy.
Costello argues that the new sanctions are aimed at increasing political damage if Biden wants to return the US to the JCPOA.
Sami Scheetz, deputy director of Biden's election campaign in Iowa, said that the president's election to former deputy foreign minister Tony Blinken for the future foreign minister position shows the administration's diplomatic direction coming.
"The JCPOA is not a perfect deal, but it helps to halt Iran's nuclear weapons program without resorting to force. Trump's withdrawal from the deal only encourages hardliners at
Meanwhile, Harb believes that the dangers of military action will prevent outbreaks from the parties.
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